Northern Lights Forecast for Toronto

Two reasons. The aurora appears in the northern sky, and from Toronto north means looking across the rest of the Greater Toronto Area, while the dark open sky over Lake Ontario is to the south, on the wrong side. And the city is far enough south that it takes a strong storm for the aurora to show clearly here. In a big storm CBC has photographed its red glow above the downtown lights behind the CN Tower.

CBC journalists have photographed the aurora over The Beaches in the east end, with the Balmy Beach Club in view, and above Bluffers Park Marina at the foot of the Scarborough Bluffs, where the sky turned bright green. Both are on the Lake Ontario shore in the east end, away from the downtown towers.

Turn off Highway 11 between Washago and Gravenhurst and drive about 20 minutes west on Southwood Road. The Muskoka preserve was recognised in 1999 as Canada's first dark-sky preserve, and its low ridges of bare granite give an open sky. Set up on the outcrop behind the Ministry sign, or climb the first ridge past the boardwalk for a 360-degree view.

Yes, when the storm is strong enough, and the south shore puts the lake on the right side. From Jackson's Point or Sibbald Point Provincial Park, about 70 km north of Toronto, you look north across up to 30 km of water, with the city's glow behind you. In winter the lake freezes over completely, and the open ice gives a flat horizon.

In Toronto, you usually need at least Kp 7 to have a reasonable chance of seeing the northern lights. Lower Kp can still bring a faint aurora display low on the northern horizon, but it is less common.

This is based on magnetic latitude, and Kp index is a global geomagnetic index, so treat it as a rule of thumb, not a location-specific guarantee.

Tonight, the NOAA Kp index forecast is 1.7 to 2.7. That is below the usual Kp index threshold for Toronto, so seeing the aurora is unlikely.